The art of uncertainty how to navigate chance, ignorance, risk and luck
"In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might other...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Books Print Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York, NY :
W.W. Norton & Company,
2025.
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| Edition: | First American edition. |
| Subjects: | |
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| Summary: | "In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future. Along the way, we learn how a misinterpretation of a probability contributed to the infamous Bay of Pigs fiasco, why a ship twice the size of the Titanic sank without a trace, and why we can be so confident that no two properly shuffled decks of cards have ever been in the same order. Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know"-- |
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| Physical Description: | xii, 323 pages : illustrations, charts ; 24 cm |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 285-298) and index. |
| ISBN: | 9781324106111 1324106115 |
| Author Notes: |
